Economic Growth under Threat: The Effects of Natural Disasters and Terrorism in Six ASEAN Countries

Dwi Mahroji; Rita Yuni Mulyanti; Setia Dharma

doi:10.55927/eajmr.v5i8.287

Authors

Dwi Mahroji Universitas Mitra Bangsa
Rita Yuni Mulyanti Universitas Teknologi Muhammadiyah Jakarta
Setia Dharma Universitas Teknologi Muhammadiyah Jakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/eajmr.v5i8.287

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Natural Disasters, Terrorism, Panel Data Analysis, ASEAN

Abstract

This study examines the effects of natural disasters and terrorism on economic growth in six ASEAN countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia—during 2010–2024. Using balanced panel data and the Fixed Effect Model, the study analyzes whether environmental and security shocks influence subsequent economic performance. Natural disasters and terrorism are measured with a one-period lag to capture their delayed economic effects. The results indicate negative relationships between both natural disasters and terrorism and economic growth. The estimated coefficients are −0.0138664 for natural disasters and −0.0787206 for terrorism, suggesting that both shocks constrain economic performance, with terrorism showing a relatively stronger negative association. The findings highlight the importance of disaster resilience and regional security policies for sustaining economic growth in ASEAN.

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